Ripple (XRP) Price Prediction as It Loses $1.40 Support: Is $1 Next?

Sam DaoduTue, April 28, 2026 at 6:09 PM UTC

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XRP has broken below $1.40 and is trading around $1.38, with the broader crypto market selling off as Bitcoin drops to $76,000. XRP has been underperforming Bitcoin for weeks—BTC is up 17% over the past 30 days while XRP has barely gained 5%—and the technical indicators have turned bearish.

The critical level to watch is $1.28, which has held through every decline since February. Below $1.28, there’s very little buyer support until $1.11, meaning XRP could plunge to $1 if the $1.28 support breaks.

Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed Chair on May 15, and J.P. Morgan expects him to push for rate cuts. If the CLARITY Act clears committee before then and Warsh signals lower rates, that would be the first time all year XRP has both regulatory clarity and cheaper borrowing costs at the same time—which could turn things around.

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XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has broken below $1.40 and is trading around $1.38. The $1.40 level had been holding as support through most of April, but with Bitcoin sliding to $76,000 and the broader market in risk-off mode, XRP couldn't hold it any longer.

The XRP price has been struggling to climb above $1.45 for weeks now, and the few times it did—like the April 17 rally to $1.50—it gave the gains back almost immediately. Now it's not just failing to break higher, it's falling away from $1.40 entirely. The key support to watch now is $1.28-$1.30, of which, if it fails to hold, XRP could drop as low as $1.

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Why XRP Lost the $1.40 Support

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XRP lost $1.40 because the broader market sentiment flipped bearish, with Bitcoin dropping to $76,000. But over the past 30 days, BTC is up 17% while XRP has barely gained 5%, so when the selloff hit, XRP was already weaker and couldn't hold up.

A descending triangle had been forming on the 4-hour chart, with each rally making a lower high while the $1.40 support held flat—until now. The daily MACD, a momentum indicator, has confirmed a bearish crossover, and the RSI has dropped to around 40, which means buyers are fading but the price hasn't fallen far enough to trigger a bounce yet.

Meanwhile, CoinGlass data shows more traders are now shorting XRP than going long, which typically means the market is positioned for further downside. Also, roughly 60% of XRP's circulating supply was bought around $1.44, which is why every push toward $1.45 runs into holders selling to break even.

With XRP now trading below $1.40, those holders are deeper underwater than before—and the selling pressure could spread lower as more people cut their losses.

Where XRP Could Find Support Between $1.40 and $1

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The first zone to watch is right where XRP is now, which is the $1.36-$1.38 area. The 50-day EMA is at $1.38, and $1.36 is the next technical support below that. If XRP can hold this zone and bounce, the $1.40 break could end up being a shakeout rather than a breakdown. But if it can't, the next stop is $1.30.

The $1.28-$1.30 range is the one that matters the most. XRP has bounced off $1.30 multiple times since February, including during the worst of the Iran war panic, and $1.28 is a key technical level that traders watch closely. If $1.30 holds again, XRP will remain in the same wide range it's been trading in for months—$1.30-$1.50.

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However, if $1.28 breaks, things could get pretty ugly. We flagged earlier this month that below $1.28, there's very little accumulated holder support until $1.11. That means once $1.28 breaks, there's a gap where almost no one bought, and XRP could drop steeply. The $1.15 level is where some analysts expect a temporary bounce, but it's thin, and it's not a support level that can stop a real selloff.

Below that, $1.00 is the next psychological level. Buyers tend to show up at round numbers, so there would likely be some demand there, but XRP dropping to $1 would mean it has lost over 70% from its cycle high and wiped out most of the gains from the 2024-2025 rally. Such a move can only happen if there's a major bearish signal, and none is showing up right now.

What Could Go Wrong for XRP to Drop to $1?

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We don’t think there's a single event that is enough to push XRP from $1.38 all the way down to $1. For that to happen, multiple things have to go wrong at the same time.

The first and most important one is the CLARITY Act. Senator Moreno warned that the bill could be shelved for 2027 if it doesn’t pass in May. If that happens, XRP will lose the catalyst that could unlock serious institutional adoption. Without the CLARITY Act, the $1.44 cost basis wall will remain in place, ETF inflows would slow, and XRP will stay stuck in the same $1.30-$1.50 range all year.

Then there's the Iran war. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed, the ceasefire is fragile, and no one knows what happens next. If the ceasefire collapses and oil prices spike again, the bearish pressure could crush the market even more. XRP dropped from $2.40 to $1.28 during the worst of the conflict in late February, so we've seen how quickly the price can slide when geopolitical risk hits.

For XRP to drop to $1, the $1.28 support has to break first. And for $1.28 to break, that means the CLARITY Act will be shelved and the war escalating. One on its own would likely push XRP toward $1.20-$1.28, but if both become reality, then XRP could plunge toward $1.00.

So Is $1 XRP Price Realistic?

XRP sliding to $1 is possible, but it's not probable based on where things stand right now. Our April 5 prediction called for XRP to finish the month between $1.20 and $1.40, and at $1.38, it's right at the top of that range. The market is under pressure, but none of the bearish factors we outlined is certain to trigger.

On the other hand, there's a catalyst coming that could flip things the other way. Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed Chair on May 15, and J.P. Morgan expects him to push for rate cuts early in his tenure. If the CLARITY Act clears committee before then and Warsh signals lower rates are coming, XRP will have both regulatory clarity and cheaper borrowing costs working in its favor.

So while the possibility of dropping to $1 exists, XRP is more likely to grind between $1.20 and $1.40 until the month concludes.

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